'The December' Effect, Business prediction thumb rule ;)
- Gowrav Vishwakarma
Well, first 'The December Effect' is actually does not have anything with month December, but by the time we got actual things behind it (or just dig a bit more), We started saying this 'December Effect' and here we are presenting it on same name. 'December Effect' can be understand as thumb rule for business prediction (Well, not yet).
We all know this basics that history repeats, and after every fall there is a rise and then fall again, But following is funny and Interesting.
Short Story behind it, I was working on my own models of AI and machine learning, I am still missing something in existing methods, so making my own algorithms to mimic human mind. In some simple experiment, I found some funny behavior of December Month.
This can also be said as 'MW Effect' So in a year from December to December. There are almost two patterns effected by shifting parameters making noise, either M or W, In M Pattern There is a fall in interest of people in December at most and in W Pattern, interest is most. Lately I also found some funny relations in some shifting parameters also, but that's another story, another time.
So, in just free time I started verifying the effect. We followed google trends data to cross check 'The December Effect'. Lately we found more patterns in shifting and other human factors, that looks promising but I can't say anything till I am happy with my results. I am not going in too detail here technically, but here is what thumb rule comes, Look at the pics below and have Fun with December.
I am taking current Major shift in consideration only, that was in 2007 and not taking any minor shifting consideration here as this article is for fun not technical.
Have a look at following pictures.
- Interest in ERP over time, red dots are December, and last one I miss to mark, but I think you can guess where it is ;)
- Interest in Digital Marketing over time, No need to say red dots are December.
- Interest in IT Jobs over time, again ;)
- Interest in Social Marketing Over Time
Well, Its not always down in December, Some times December is best for some business, company or segments, may be we will explore more in some other blog to understand shifting patterns so at least we can try controlling a few factors to make in our favor.
- Interest in Laptop over time
- Interest in Android over time
- Interest in Amazon over time
Now its not always December, That I said in start but all above images are specially selected for December month, But can the same pattern be with other months, That we say Shifting, Look at following picture, here red are December but Green Dots are November. So pattern is trying to follow 'The December Effect' but with some shifting force towards November.
- Interest in Processors Search over time
Just take one more for fun at random, but before ending, This blog I wrote may start a new series (well as per looking at further results which I am not going here in details), Please subscribe us by mailing at firstname.lastname@example.org.
try guessing December ;)
Well, it's easy to solve this November/December puzzle. In one word - it's Christmas time. Basically all search terms which relate to some kind of possible Christmas presents - laptop, amazon, ebay, android and probably many more will be on top in November/December. But all search terms which are related to work will go down because of holidays.